Class of 2025 high school seniors are among the largest graduating class in the country, facing increased competition for college admissions due to the birth rate surge in 2007. That year, U.S. births hit a record high, leading to a larger applicant pool.
Specifically, 4.5 million people will be 17 years old in the years 2024 and 2025. This is a notable increase from about 4.3 and 4.4 million observed in the previous years. The sudden upward trend suggests that the ongoing college application cycles will see an increase in the number of qualified applicants, leading to a potentially more competitive admissions process.
This would directly affect those who plan to apply to higher ranked and competitive schools. When the population of high school seniors increases, the competition for undergraduate admissions in selective colleges becomes rigorous and demanding.
“It’s difficult to be accepted into a college when there are so many competitors,” said senior Nadia Meeks. “Especially as an Asian woman, since affirmative action is gone, I’m held to higher standards and have a lower chance of getting accepted, which is alarming and frightening.”
Highly selective and Ivy League colleges heavily rely on funding, depending largely on endowment or financial assets. These funds are typically invested, and the returns help support the institution’s facilities, including salaries, scholarships and other operations. Due to these institutions’ significant dependence on endowments and funds, they are more flexible in managing admissions based on academic rigidity and excellence rather than monetary needs.
However, this escalated competition is expected to be temporary. Since the 2007 birth peak, the national birth rate has experienced a significant decline. The birth rate dropped by almost 23% between 2007 and 2002– from 14.3 births per 1,000 people to 11.1. In the near future, high schools may actually face a deficit in seniors preparing for college.
The traditional college-age population in the US is projected to significantly decrease between 2025 and 2029, with continued declines until 2040. This drop suggests that while current applicants face intensifying competition, future generations are to find a less crowded admissions process.
The birth spike is also a noteworthy demographic event, connecting to previous periods of the country’s history. “The birth spike of 2007 is very interesting, especially if you are looking at it from a human geography standpoint. Historically looking back during the baby boom, we saw how the public institutions and healthcare had to adjust to that generation,” said social studies teacher Sara Russell. “What is surprising is that 2007 is an isolating year, as the following year we saw a recession. Colleges are very much dependent on tuition and even though they have to admit more students this year, they will have to make changes to accommodate the following year.”
The 2007 birth spike has led to a temporary surge in college applicants, making admissions extremely selective. The demographic shift is to ease future competition, but current seniors are to face the rigid selection process. Students are advised to plan accordingly to be able to successfully navigate through the admissions process.
